Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking

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Among the many tools a manager can use for strategic planning, scenario planning stands out for its ability to capture a whole range of possibilities in rich detail. By identifying basic trends and uncertainties, a manager can construct a series of scenarios what will help to compensate for the usual errors in decision making — overconfidence and tunnel vision. Through case studies of Interpublic, an international advertising agency, and Anglo-American Corporation in South Africa, the author describes how to build scenarios in a step-by-step process and how to use the resulting stories to plan a company's future.   

Paul J. H. Schoemaker is the chairman of Decision Strategies International, Inc., and a professor in the department of operations and information management, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.

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