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Managerial Economics, MIT Authors

What the GDP Gets Wrong (Why Managers Should Care)

By Erik Brynjolfsson and Adam Saunders

October 1, 2009

The irony: We know less about the sources of value in the economy than we did 25 years ago.

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We see the influence of the information age everywhere, except in the GDP statistics.1 More people than ever are using Wikipedia, Facebook, Craigslist, Pandora, Hulu and Google. Thousands of new information goods and services are introduced each year. Yet, according to the official GDP statistics, the information sector (software, publishing, motion picture and sound recording, broadcasting, telecom, and information and data processing services) is about the same share of the economy as it was 25 years ago — about 4%. How is this possible? Don’t we have access to more information than ever before?

The answer isn’t about quantity, it’s about price. The bits that comprise today’s information goods are supplanting the atoms that formed yesterday’s encyclopedias, movie theaters, music CDs and newspapers. Online information may be updated every minute of the day and accessible almost anywhere in the world, but its price is usually radically lower than that of its physical counterpart, if there even is a price.

“The irony: We know less about the sources of value in the economy than we did 25 years ago.”

The recording industry embodies this trend. In the past few years, consumers have dramatically shifted their music purchases from physical media such as CDs to online sources such as iTunes. (See “Going Digital.”) Consumers have changed their purchasing habits by buying fewer physical units (CDs, cassettes or vinyl records). Sales declined from more than 800 million units in 2004 to just 400 million units in 2008. Contrast that with the vast increase in paid downloads of digital songs. In 2008, more than 1 billion digital single songs were purchased in the United States, as well as more than 50 million digital albums. An even larger number of songs were downloaded illegally, though that’s not reflected in our charts.

Going Digital
Consumers Are Buying More Music…

But Are Paying Much Less for It

Yet this increase in the number of units has not translated into more revenue — in fact, quite the opposite has occurred. Combined revenue from the sale of songs for the record companies went from more than $12.3 billion in 2004 to $7.4 billion in 2008 — a whopping 40% decline. Even


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This article was printed from MIT Sloan Management Review online: http://sloanreview.mit.edu/the-magazine/2009-fall/51119/what-the-gdp-gets-wrong-why-managers-should-care/

3 comments on “What the GDP Gets Wrong (Why Managers Should Care)”

  1. The inability to account for improvements through technology seems to me to be a general weakness of GNP as a measure of prosperity. It isn’t specific to the information sector. E.g. 25 years ago you could buy a video camera for $1200. You can by one now for the same price but it does a hell of a lot more than the ones you could buy back in the mid-80s. This must be the same across other industries – e.g. construction technology must have made it cheaper to get more ‘house’ for your buck.

    Technology increases our prosperity without changing the amount we pay for it. So GDP doesn’t measure the actual increase in prosperity. Which is a shame because growth in GDP is generally taken that way, and is chased by all the major political parties.
    Those are my thoughts. Anyone else?
    Trevor Thomson

  2. The other thing to consider Trevor, is that you can also buy a video camera for $150 that does far more than a $1200 camera used to. So price has come down as well as getting more bang for your buck.

    Stuart

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