MIT Sloan Management Review

Corporate Strategy

Using Scenario Analysis to Manage the Strategic Risks of Reengineering

By Eric K. Clemons

July 15, 1995

REENGINEERING IS RISKY BUSINESS, AND THE RISKS RESULT BOTH WHEN COMPANIES TRY TO DO TOO LITTLE IN THEIR REENGINEERING EFFORTS AND WHEN THEY TRY to do enough. They may make the wrong or inadequate changes to systems or processes, or they may make radical changes that lead to political backlashes. To manage the risks of reengineering, according to the author, it is essential to anticipate a company’s future environmental and operational uncertainties and to achieve consensus on the changes that need to be made. Scenario analysis provides a way to avoid the obstacles to “revisioning” — overconfidence, intellectual arrogance, and anchoring in the present.

Major business reengineering efforts represent an organization’s commitment of millions of dollars for redesigning internal organizational processes, changing fundamental product delivery and customer service procedures, and often reexamining and repositioning corporate strategy. These efforts are inevitably accompanied by millions of dollars for replacing the information infrastructure and developing new application code to support the new processes, procedures, and strategies.

Just as inevitably, after completing a reengineering project, the organization lacks both resources and will to undertake a second reengineering effort to resolve the first project’s major deficiencies; thus reengineering generally constitutes a lasting legacy, and whatever is decided about the organization’s future design and built into the information systems will constrain the corporation for years.

Reengineering projects are inherently risky and uncertain. While the individual risk components associated with the projects are the same as those of any other large systems undertaking, the specific risk profile of reengineering projects is fundamentally different. In particular, the risks either of building the wrong systems or of terminating prematurely and thus completing no systems are both greater.

Successful business reengineering must begin by examining an organization’s future and its operating environment; based on this, reengineering must determine which of the organization’s fundamental assumptions about the future to reexamine and which strengths based on these assumptions must change. Techniques like scenario planning can greatly reduce risk and help executives properly focus... To read the complete article, login or sign-up using the form below.

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