In the early 1990s, a Fortune 100 company contemplated making a sizable investment to manufacture and distribute a core product in Asia. Although the project’s champion knew little about Asia, he was convinced he could succeed there just as he had in the United State. In making his judgment, he overlooked financial, operational and strategic information that contradicted his views. Senior executives, relying on the company’s U.S. experience, gave the go-ahead. After the resulting debacle and much soul searching, managers realized that they had let themselves be misled by their untested assumptions.
Such problems are not new, but in today’s world, they can be fatal. Rapid advances in information and production technologies have combined with global expansion and competition to create a business environment in which change is the norm.1
There’s nothing wrong with change. Classic management texts insist change is necessary for business survival and exhort executives to abandon their organizational isolationism — and their naive belief in environmental stability and homogenous, conflict-free workplaces.2 In dynamic internal and external business environments, leaders must be able to interpret cues and make decisions.3 But decision making is increasingly complex and success uncertain. Smart choices are often incompatible with existing knowledge and past experience, so managers may feel they are traveling without guideposts.4
Decision making is an... To read the complete article, login or sign-up using the form below.
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