It’s the Question everyone wants answered: Why did so many smart people miss the signs of the collapse of the subprime market? There were many danger signals about the impending housing bubble and the rampant use of derivatives as early as 2001. Yet these signals were largely ignored by such financial players as Northern Rock, Countrywide, Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch until they all had to face the music harshly and abruptly. Some players were more prescient, however. In 2003, investment guru Warren Buffet foresaw that complex derivatives would multiply and mutate until “some event makes their toxicity clear.” In 2002, he derided derivatives as financial weapons of mass destruction.1
The leading question
Why do managers often overlook or misread information that should inform their judgment?Findings
- Both individual and organizational biases inhibit the clear interpretation of information during decision making.
- “Groupthink” is particularly coercive.
- Decision makers do see signals, but jump to the most convenient conclusion... To read the complete article, login or sign-up using the form below.
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