1. J. Brusten, “Inside RadioShack’s Slow-Motion Collapse,” Bloomberg Businessweek, Feb. 2, 2015; and “Lessons from RadioShack: To Stay on Top, Figure Out What Got You There,” Knowledge@Wharton, Feb. 15, 2015, https://knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu.
2. M. van Tartwijk, “Philips Sells Majority Stake in LED Components, Automotive Business,” The Wall Street Journal, March 31, 2015; and M. Egan, “GE Can’t Get Rid of Its Light Bulb Business,” CNN, May 22, 2018, https://money.cnn.com. Osram Sylvania has refocused its lighting business on opto-semiconductors, automotive, and digital applications; see “Annual Report of Osram Light Group Fiscal Year 2018,” 2018: 5.
3. E. Schmidt and J. Rosenberg, “How Google Works” (New York: Grand Central Publishing, 2014).
4. M.H. Bazerman and M.D. Watkins, “Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Coming and How to Prevent Them” (Boston: Harvard Business School Press, 2004).
5. D. Franklin, “Megatech: Technology in 2050” (London: Economist Books, 2017).
6. Psychologists have studied why consumers often rank various risks very differently than experts who have studied the statistics. They found that risks over which people have little control (such as flying versus driving yourself) or those that people poorly understand (radiation versus slipping in the shower) are considered more threatening by ordinary citizens. The concentration of risks (airplane crash versus highway death) and whether the threat has a halo of dread (Ebola versus a broken leg) also shape consumers’ perceptions. See P. Slovic, “The Perception of Risk” (Abington-on-Thames, England: Routledge, 2000).
7. P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Scenario Planning: A Tool for Strategic Thinking,” MIT Sloan Management Review 36, no. 2 (winter 1995): 25-40; and K. van der Heijden, “Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation” (New York: John Wiley, 1996).
8. V. Venkatraman, “How to Read and Respond to Weak Digital Signals,” MIT Sloan Management Review, Feb. 22, 2019, https://sloanreview.mit.edu.
9. C.J. Nemeth, B. Personnaz, M. Personnaz, et al., “The Liberating Role of Conflict in Group Creativity: A Study in Two Countries,” European Journal of Social Psychology 34, no. 4 (July/August 2004): 365-374.
10. R.L. Martin, “The Opposable Mind: Winning Through Integrative Thinking” (Boston: Harvard Business Press, 2009).
11. J. Goudreau, “Eight Leadership Lessons From the World’s Most Powerful Women,” Forbes, March 21, 2013, www.forbes.com.
12. A.S. Grove, “Only the Paranoid Survive” (New York: Currency, 1996).
13. Diversity plays a key role in fostering outside-in perspectives. See S. Saeed, S. Yousafzai, A. Paladino, et al., “Inside-Out and Outside-In Orientations: A Meta-Analysis of Orientation’s Effects on Innovation and Firm Performance,” Industrial Marketing Management 47 (May 2015): 121-133.
14. D. Baer, “Five Brilliant Strategies Jeff Bezos Used to Build the Amazon Empire,” Business Insider, March 17, 2014, www.businessinsider.com.
15. R. Dalio, “Principles: Life and Work” (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2017).
16. J. Gapper, “Bridgewater Is Troubled Over ‘Radical Transparency,’” Financial Times, Feb. 10, 2016.
17. M. Zenko, “Red Team: How to Succeed by Thinking Like the Enemy” (New York: Basic Books, 2015).
18. J. Surowiecki, “The Wisdom of Crowds: Why the Many Are Smarter Than the Few and How Collective Wisdom Shapes Business, Economics, Societies, and Nations” (New York: Random House, 2005).
19. P.J.H. Schoemaker, G.S. Day, and S.A. Snyder, “Integrating Organizational Networks, Weak Signals, Strategic Radars, and Scenario Planning,” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 80, no. 4 (May 2013): 815-824.
20. P.R. Kleindorfer, Y. Wind, and R.E. Gunther, “The Network Challenge: Strategy, Profit, and Risk in an Interlinked World” (Upper Saddle River, New Jersey: Prentice Hall Professional, 2009).
21. See M. Michalko, “Cracking Creativity: The Secrets of Creative Genius” (Berkeley, California: Ten Speed Press, 2001); and see M.J. Gelb, “How to Think Like Leonardo da Vinci: Seven Steps to Genius Every Day” (New York: Dell, 2009).
22. S. Krupp and P.J.H. Schoemaker, “Winning the Long Game: How Strategic Leaders Shape the Future” (New York: PublicAffairs, 2014): 104-105.
23. W. Ury, “Go to the Balcony,” (2016 Dawson High school Graduation address, June 12, 2016).