Barry Nalebuff

Yale School of Management

Yale University

@BarryNalebuff Website

Barry Nalebuff is an expert on game theory and has written extensively on its application to business strategy. A graduate of MIT, a Rhodes Scholar, and Junior Fellow at the Harvard Society of Fellows, Nalebuff earned his doctorate at Oxford University. In addition to his academic work, he is the cofounder of Honest Tea, Kombrewcha, and Maker Oats.

Vote History

Statement Vote Confidence Comments
In the next decade, we will see the first sustainably profitable private commercial activities in space. Neither Agree nor Disagree 5 “I think we will see sustainable private commercial activities in space, but [I] doubt they will be profitable — even though they may have a large market cap. Remember that it took Amazon nine years after being founded [and seven years since going public] before it made a profit.”
Introducing 5G networks 3-5 years ahead of other countries will give Chinese firms an advantage. Agree 6 “But how much of an advantage? How much did Minitel help the French in the long run? And given potential for spyware via Chinese hardware, being a second-mover might be a better position in the long run. One big gain to 5G seems to be competition to cable providers. Not sure how much that makes a difference to overall economy.”
The increase in stock market volatility that began in 2018 will last for another three to five years. Neither Agree nor Disagree 2 “If I could predict volatility, I could make a lot of money buying or selling options on the VIX.”
China is no longer the most attractive growth opportunity for Western multinationals. Agree 5 “I’m not sure it was ever the most attractive growth opportunity for Western multinationals. And, of course, it depends quite a bit on your industry. It would have been a great growth opportunity for Google absent censorship. It remains a good growth opportunity for Apple. Is it the most attractive growth opportunity for GM? Probably not.”
In the next five years, the blockchain will have a transformative effect on finance in emerging markets. Disagree 5
In the absence of a carbon tax, industry self-regulation can help mitigate the worst fallout from climate change. Strongly Disagree 10 “Given the public-good nature of the problem, it is folly to think that industry self-regulation will solve the problem any more than self-regulation helped mitigate fallout from smoking. Indeed, the oil-extraction industry (much like the tobacco industry) has been engaged in the strategy of fear, uncertainty, and doubt to deny that a problem even exists.”
Amazon’s new $15 per hour minimum wage will force other companies to follow suit. Agree 10 “Sure. But the question is how many others? And how fast? And what will they take back with the other hand as they raise wages?”
Restrictions on skilled immigration will cause US firms to to shift more operations overseas. Agree 8 “Less skilled immigration will make it harder to hire skilled workers in the U.S., which leads to more being hired outside the U.S. That might be done by non-U.S. firms who end up losing out. Take out ‘U.S.,’ and the answer is clear.”
Uber has to develop self-driving cars in the next 10 years in order to remain viable. Agree 9 “Not sure the question is quite right. I believe quite strongly that self-driving cars are essential to Uber’s success. But if Toyota develops them in partnership with Uber that could work fine for Uber.”
A trade war will be more disruptive to business than to consumers. Agree 8 “Trade wars both raise prices and create uncertainty. The uncertainty is often worse than higher prices. (This is why putting a sunset clause into the trade deal with Canada was a clear poison pill.) ”
Concern over consumer privacy will fundamentally limit businesses’ ability to use big data. Disagree 3