Professor Tadelis’ current areas of research are e-commerce, economics of organization, procurement contracting, theory of the firm and industrial organization, contract theory, and game theory. Tadelis was the Joe Shoong Chair in International Business and the Associate Dean for Strategic Planning at the Haas School of Business. Tadelis has also held positions at eBay Research Labs and Amazon.
|The COVID-19 pandemic will lead companies to relocate infrastructure and employees away from dense urban locations.||Disagree||7||“Humans are resilient. Lessons will be learned. The benefits from agglomeration will likely exceed any benefits that relocating would provide.”|
|The California Consumer Privacy Act will undermine the targeted advertising market by giving consumers the right to opt out of allowing companies to sell personal data to third parties.||Disagree||8||“Consumer behavior suggests that most people give away their privacy for the equivalent of a candy bar. It is very unlikely that a meaningful fraction of people actually opt out of marketing or even put serious restrictions on the use of their personal data.”|
|In the wake of recent climate-related disasters and related events, such as the bankruptcy of PG&E, corporations are now planning for the increased operational risks and potential liabilities caused by climate change.||Disagree||4||“By no means do I have any expertise here, but from most of my knowledge vis-a-vis planning, these are the type of contingencies that I suspect most corporations to designate as too far removed from near-term concerns, and hence, they will likely neglect these issues.”|
|Antitrust policy should intervene more decisively to limit the scope of large technology platforms.||Strongly Disagree||10||“Regulators should not ‘intervene more decisively to limit the scope’ of ‘any’ industry without a clear theory of harm — and even more so for emerging technologies that are still developing at a dizzying pace. Large companies should attract the scrutiny of regulators, but these regulators must focus on conduct that inflicts clear harm rather than be concerned with size and scope for their own sake.”|
|U.S. regulations have been rolled back in a number of areas, including emissions standards and clean water. Companies will decide to voluntarily adhere to rules that closely resemble the original standards.||Disagree||8||“By and large firms are bound to maximize shareholder value, and as such, will aim to maximize free cash flow subject to regulatory constraints. With constraints being removed, firms will have every incentive to avoid adhering to rules that hamper their ability to increase free cash flow.”|
|The Business Roundtable’s new Statement on the Purpose of a Corporation indicates a shift away from shareholder value maximization as the sole purpose of the corporation and toward a broader view of value creation.
This shift will have material impact on the well-being of U.S. workers.
|Disagree||8||“Two elements of the statement suggest that change is not imminent. First, the Roundtable has no enforcement ability and cannot dictate behavior. Second, the objectives are very hard to measure, making it difficult to create a clear set of measurable goals. Both of these, together with the fact that most companies are competing in a global economy, make it hard for me to believe in change.”|
|In the next decade, we will see the first sustainably profitable private commercial activities in space.||Disagree||5||“This sounds more like a question for prophets, and I am no prophet. That said, looking at space progress in the past 50 years, I find it very improbable that we will see the first sustainably profitable private commercial activities in space in the next decade or two. Aside from mining, which seems decades away to me, I can’t see an obvious profitable space industry in the near future.”|
|Introducing 5G networks 3-5 years ahead of other countries will give Chinese firms an advantage.||Agree||8||“It is typically the case that having access to early technology adoption leads to a leg up on introducing and benefiting from complementary technologies and innovations.”|
|A hard Brexit will have a significant negative impact on many businesses, even if they do not have a U.K. or European presence.||Neither Agree nor Disagree||5||“A hard Brexit may have countervailing effects. On one hand, it will hit the U.K. hard and that should have a ripple effect. The U.K. is not a huge economy, but it’s still meaningful. On the other hand, a hard Brexit may be a deterrent to other ill-thought-through attempts at leaving the EU, which may act as a stronger glue to keep the rest of the EU together, reducing uncertainty about its stability.”|
|China is no longer the most attractive growth opportunity for Western multinationals.||Disagree||6||“The government’s ‘Made in China 2025’ initiative, together with its already powerful and growing tech industry, have China poised for continued strong growth. Moreover, with close to 1.5 billion people, the domestic market alone is fertile ground for much market-driven innovation.”|
|In the next five years, the blockchain will have a transformative effect on finance in emerging markets.||Neither Agree nor Disagree||5||“Bitcoin was launched more than three years ago with price swings that were insane. I am not an expert in blockchain (though I have read about it), and there is a lot of hype around it, so I find it impossible to predict the possible impact.”|
|In the absence of a carbon tax, industry self-regulation can help mitigate the worst fallout from climate change.||Strongly Disagree||8||“Without enforcement, manufacturers’ incentives to curb pollution do not align with those of society. Carbon emissions is a standard ‘commons’ problem where everyone would be happier with less pollution, but each manufacturer would prefer to pollute in a way that maximizes its own profits, while wishing that others keep cutting back. Consumer boycotts may help, but these also suffer from the commons problem.”|
|Amazon’s new $15 per hour minimum wage will force other companies to follow suit.||Neither Agree nor Disagree||10||“In markets with a large supply of labor that can do warehouse-type jobs, this will have little or no effect. In tighter markets, however, this will put pressure on competing employers to raise their wages.”|
|Restrictions on skilled immigration will cause US firms to to shift more operations overseas.||Strongly Agree||10||“Skilled labor, especially in engineering and data science, is scarce. Firms compete vigorously for the best talent, and if restrictions will be imposed, firms will have to build talent pools abroad.”|
|Uber has to develop self-driving cars in the next 10 years in order to remain viable.||Disagree||9||“There is significant uncertainty on the regulatory environment that self-driving cars will be subject to, and the cost model of human drivers is pretty affordable.”|
|A trade war will be more disruptive to business than to consumers.||Agree||“Consumers will be hurt but will re-optimize their purchases to minimize the impact. Businesses face more extreme shocks; some will hurt and others not. Unpredictability is very harmful for business.”|
|Concern over consumer privacy will fundamentally limit businesses’ ability to use big data.||Agree||8||“The recent event of Cambridge Analytica has cause many to fear, maybe more than they should, about data privacy, which is already impacting policy.”|