The field of forecasting has advanced significantly in recent years. But managers need to learn from history about what they can and cannot predict, and develop plans that are sensitive to surprises.

In uncertain economic times, when even the acknowledged experts don’t know what’s coming next, it’s important to think twice about what everyone else takes for granted. That’s one of the reasons the book Learning from Las Vegas might resonate with managers.

Managers have been inundated with advice on the dos and don’ts of laying off employees. But the truth is that there is no ‘one size fits all’ approach to downsizing.

Innovation strategy expert Vijay Govindarajan thinks that businesses should be careful not to abandon innovation in their quest for efficiency and cost control during a recession — but they may need to reduce their focus on risky breakthrough innovation plans.

June has been declared “Innovation Month” here in New England — where MIT is located. Maybe it should be “Innovation Month” everywhere.

C.K. Prahalad thinks we are entering a period where a key challenge is managing volatility and discontinuities.

In a downturn like this one, every company should — in some sense — think of itself as a new business, according to Harvard Business School’s Lynda Applegate.

In the last 12 months, “innovation has become more important, not less,” according to innovation expert Vijay Govindarajan.

Don’t have all the resources you’d like due to the economic downturn? Fear not: Resource constraints can spark creativity, according to a new article.

“What will be the long-term impact of the crisis on technological innovation?” Joshua Gans examines that question in the new Spring 2009 issue of MIT Sloan Management Review.

Whether it involves recycling, refurbishing or remanufacturing, product reconstruction can offer attractive consumer prices, high-quality goods and a host of profit opportunities.

The challenge for managers during a downturn is to find the balance between pursuing too many unprofitable investment opportunities and passing up too many potentially profitable ones.

Put aside the myth of the ‘tamed’ business cycle. In the wake of the current economic downturn, managers must learn how to use the business cycle for competitive advantage.

Here’s an interesting idea: Now may be an opportune time to perform repair work within your organization.

“Any one of us — and any one of our organizations — could be forgiven for behaving at the moment like a bear confronting winter,” writes Martin Reeves. And he doesn’t mean “bearishly,” like investors. “No, I mean behaving literally like a bear — which is to say, shutting down the system. Hibernating. Certainly feels like the wise course just now.”

Looking for new strategies for doing business in the recession? Consider strategies employed by companies from emerging markets — where economic volatility and constraints on consumer disposable income are commonplace.