We asked our panel of strategy experts to tell us how strongly they agree with this statement:

Introducing 5G networks 3-5 years ahead of other countries will give Chinese firms an advantage.


Raw Responses

Responses weighted by panelists’ level of confidence

Across the world, the race to deploy 5G — next-generation internet connectivity — is heating up, with several countries in contention for offering this powerful network technology first. 5G will offer much faster networks for businesses and consumers and enable new advances in internet of things technology. China, South Korea, the U.S., and Japan are among the countries most likely to make the first commercial 5G network debut, and for the U.S. and China in particular, the technology has become a focal point in an escalating trade war. This month, we asked our panel of strategy experts to examine the competitive scenario if China were to achieve a 5G rollout first.

Panelist Vote Confidence Comments Profile & Vote History
Holden, Richard

Richard Holden

University of New South Wales
Agree 6 “I think it depends on how strong the network externalities are and the degree to which 5G technology once installed can be replaced with superior technology.” Profile / Vote History
Van Reenen, John

John Van Reenen

Agree 5 “First-mover advantages are often exaggerated.” Profile / Vote History
Arora, Ashish

Ashish Arora

Duke University
Strongly Agree 5 “Pioneers do not always benefit. But in this case, it seems likely that they will.” Profile / Vote History
Gans, Joshua

Joshua Gans

University of Toronto
Agree 8 “A 5G network that is built earlier in a region moves businesses in that region into the future sooner. They can experiment with new products and services and be further up the learning curve. The cost is that global demand for those services is still far off, which diminishes their relative advantage.” Profile / Vote History
McAfee, R. Preston

R. Preston McAfee

Agree 8 “Early experience, learning by doing, control of standards, and large scale will provide an advantage to equipment manufacturers like Huawei and ZTE, and to handset suppliers, especially with barriers to foreign firms in the Chinese telephony market.” Profile / Vote History
Greenstein, Shane

Shane Greenstein

Harvard University
Strongly Agree 9 “There are no compelling applications for 5G yet, but there are many promising prototypes in security, entertainment, and logistics. Give inventive and competent firms time to explore, and they will invent something and figure out how to get revenue from it. More time is a big advantage.” Profile / Vote History
McGahan, Anita

Anita McGahan

University of Toronto
Agree 7 “Faster internet connectivity gives firms an edge in market analysis of all types, including financial. It gives firms an edge in responding to opportunities. The question here is whether access to 5G networks in China will be restricted to Chinese firms. If so, and if Chinese companies are not restricted internationally from access to data, then 5G will confer an advantage on them.” Profile / Vote History
Florida, Richard

Richard Florida

University of Toronto
Neither Agree nor Disagree 7 “Yes and no. “Yes” because it will create significant first-mover advantage in a huge market. “No” because it ultimately depends on whether the U.S. can freeze Chinese companies out of Western markets. This will be interesting to watch.” Profile / Vote History
Lyon, Tom

Tom Lyon

University of Michigan
Strongly Agree 8 “A technological lead is usually valuable. This may be especially important in autonomous vehicle technology, which will rely on 5G networks.” Profile / Vote History
Roberts, John

John Roberts

Stanford University
Agree 5 Profile / Vote History
Nalebuff, Barry

Barry Nalebuff

Yale University
Agree 6 “But how much of an advantage? How much did Minitel help the French in the long run? And given potential for spyware via Chinese hardware, being a second-mover might be a better position in the long run. One big gain to 5G seems to be competition to cable providers. Not sure how much that makes a difference to overall economy.” Profile / Vote History
Stern, Scott

Scott Stern

Agree 6 “There are multiple versions of 5G, and many companies and countries are trying to leapfrog in this area, but some of the key strategic adoption initiatives in China are likely to allow Chinese firms such as Huawei to have some advantages over competitors such as Ericsson and Nokia. But not sure if these advantages are decisive.” Profile / Vote History
Moser, Petra

Petra Moser

New York University
Strongly Agree 10 “Whoever gets access to 5G first will be first to develop new technologies that require superfast speed, reduced lag time, or increased network capacity. A lag of three to five years creates a head start for Chinese firms that will be difficult to close.” Profile / Vote History
Tadelis, Steve

Steve Tadelis

University of California, Berkeley
Agree 8 “It is typically the case that having access to early technology adoption leads to a leg up on introducing and benefiting from complementary technologies and innovations.” Profile / Vote History
Henderson, Rebecca

Rebecca Henderson

Harvard University
Strongly Agree 8 “The degree of advantage is heavily dependent, of course, on how good the Chinese technology proves to be.” Profile / Vote History
Sorenson, Olav

Olav Sorenson

Yale University
Disagree 8 “If China actually beats other countries by three-plus years, it probably would give Chinese firms an advantage. But it’s unclear that they will. 5G has already begun being deployed in Korea and the U.S. It’s also not clear whether the version that China adopts will become the standard. If it does not, early deployment might even become a disadvantage.” Profile / Vote History
Simcoe, Timothy

Timothy Simcoe

Boston University
Strongly Disagree 8 “Which Chinese firms? Not the carriers, for whom competition is local. Not device makers, for whom 5G (because it’s a standard) will not be a differentiating feature. Maybe infrastructure producers, like Huawei or ZTE, but it looks like security concerns will harm them in the U.S., and their real advantage in addressable markets is cost-based.” Profile / Vote History
Brynjolfsson, Erik

Erik Brynjolfsson

Strongly Agree 7 “5G is a big deal, and the U.S. is fumbling its rollout.” Profile / Vote History
Schilling, Melissa

Melissa Schilling

New York University
Agree 10 “Access to 5G infrastructure and customers on 5G connections will enable Chinese firms to develop a wide range of products and services that will be more advanced than those in countries without 5G. There will be second-mover advantages for the other countries, but it could still take a while to catch up.” Profile / Vote History
Brown, Jennifer

Jennifer Brown

University of Utah
Neither Agree nor Disagree 6 “The advantage here isn’t obvious. Local demand may spur local innovation (and a head start on 5G tech development), but not necessarily in a way that precludes non-Chinese firms from jumping in now or later. Moreover, the international success or failure of Chinese firms may be sensitive to other countries’ tech and security policy three to five years from now.” Profile / Vote History
Rosenkopf, Lori

Lori Rosenkopf

University of Pennsylvania
Agree 8 “Working infrastructure, coupled with the large protected domestic market, will stimulate massive commercialization of related and complementary products and services by Chinese firms, which in turn will accelerate technological development.” Profile / Vote History
Levinthal, Daniel

Daniel Levinthal

University of Pennsylvania
Agree 8 “The Chinese government can be expected to privilege national firms in building out this network and technology providers whose systems will interface with this platform.” Profile / Vote History

1 Comment On: If China Reaches 5G First, How Will Countries Compete?

  • ChrisGooniFW ChrisGooniFW | July 9, 2019

    Could You Imagine Doing It Pre-internet?

    That’s why you hear all these tales about people who need to pay off these student debts however are in no place to pay them. I also marvel why individuals think they can gough on these 4X the selling price as nicely? It has been thrilling to see the revelation of what technology can accomplish within the elementary classroom as nicely. Generally, telecom sector stocks like Starhub, Singtel and M1 have grown fairly nicely in the lately. A. If at the moment’s variable annuities seemed just like the product of the same title 10 years in the past, I’d still be opposed to them. It follows therefore that Net Loss might be recognized if the result of the income report is a debit steadiness and can still be imputed in the appropriate Capital account. They primarily promise you some upside linked to the stock market however at the same time assure you a minimum revenue for the rest of your life, regardless of when a bear market lands throughout your retirement. Most individuals should not saving enough for retirement!

    However, these are precisely the belongings that depart you susceptible to a market downturn early in your retirement. That’s because in case you begin making withdrawals on top of market losses, it is onerous to ever make up the lost floor. There have been solely two 5-year durations throughout which the Index lost worth – those between (a) 1994-1998 when the Index lost 1.74% per annum, and (b) 1998-2002 when the Index lost 7.85% per annum. The largest 5-year acquire was recorded between 2003 and 2007 when the Index soared 688% for an annualized gain of simply over 51% per year during that point period. Assuming that Trump manages to withstand the results of some tough transits over the following two months and is inaugurated, his administration is more likely to have a robust time of it. Fave Five Men’s NCAA Div1 coaches of all time. Coach Mike Dunlap and coach Rico Hines are two coaches who’ve NBA expertise they usually worked actually hard to help me get higher.

    Rising equities might be seen as inflation and banks and economies developed higher counter-measures for overheating. However, now the rising bubble seems to be more cushioned due to errors in the past and in addition indicative of a sluggish global financial recovery. I nonetheless suppose the valuations now are costly however i’ve decided to spend a quarter of my reserves to purchase Thai Beverage. The amount of cash available now could be crucial because the STI had hit a 1 12 months high. The chart beneath shows the annual returns for the MSCI EM Latin America Index between 1988 and 2010 and also signifies 5-, 10-, 15-, and 20- 12 months annualized returns. Unfortunately there is no such thing as a ETF presently out there that tracks the MSCI EM Latin America Index. The MSCI EM Latin America Index closed at a worth of 9519.625 on December 31, 2010, a achieve of an unbelievable 9,419.6% since its inception 23 years earlier.

    Since its inception, the returns for the MSCI EM Latin America Index, though very volatile, have been nothing wanting astounding. Although extraordinarily risky, Latin American stocks can present fairly a kick to funding returns throughout a bull market. Recent stock market rally has moved cautious investors into more stable blue chip stocks like ComfortDelgro, SIA Engineering and REITS. After a report by Jim O’Neill saying that it is sensible for central banks to personal equities, the stock market has already been on a bullish path. Back in 2008, the crash appears to be engineered in a sense that the media and the rating firms were reassuring the public to stay invested when the fundamentals usually are not in place. You can choose high-returning property like stock funds, which you’d expect to remain ahead of inflation over time. The computerized finlock options permits on the spot routing involving finlock solutions between stay assistants, which in flip helps you to boost freedom in addition to handle.

    In other words, simply as we have a look at aggressive moats for profitable businesses, you have to think about your competitive moats as an investor. This issues greater than most individuals think. By eliminating these corporations, I will probably be extra seemingly to minimize risk when selecting from the remaining corporations. But it is not a lot assist towards inflation, which can erode the value of any fixed payment over time. After many weeks of debate plus the political debate over the federal debt ceiling and spending cuts, one of the ranking businesses — Standard & Poor’s — has officially downgraded the credit score of the U.S. But that said, ranking firms like S&P and Moody’s rating can’t always be used as indicators as they could be capable of engineer a certain end result. And the reason why equities are most well-liked rather than commodities is that they give dividends to shareholders while holding on to commodities like silver and gold would not present any returns on funding.

Add a comment